Polling Conspiracy? GOP’s ‘Stupid Problem” on Display…Again

By Alec Kohut

Weeks ago, in the aftermath of Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments,  I wrote about the GOP’s “stupid problem.” Little did I know it would take such little time for them to again prove me right, and yes they have a serious ‘stupid’ problem. This week it was demonstrated by the growing conspiracy theory that pollsters and the media are skewing poll data to favor President Obama and suppress Republican voter turnout.

Over the past two weeks, even the venerable Gallop Poll has joined this dastardly plot to re-elect Barack Obama. But for Rush Limbaugh and the stalwarts at Fox News, the public may have remained in the dark to these liberal shenanigans. While the average person on the street may believe that Romney’s drop in the polls has been caused by a lousy GOP convention overshadowed by a great Democratic convention, Romney’s botched attempt to use the Libyan attacks for political gain, his stating that middle income is $200,000 and of course the release of the “47% video.”

But it is none of these things causing Mitt to drop in the polls, oh no, it’s all a conspiracy perpetrated by the ‘liberal’ media. Bill O’Reilly, the master of “no spin,” has bought in hook, line and sinker as he welcomed on his show the ramblings and conspiratorial thoughts conceived in Dick Morris’ syphilitic ravaged mind.

While some on left have written and spoke about why this polling conspiracy is wrong, that in itself is an exercise in futility. The idea that pollsters are engaged in a wide-ranging conspiracy to skew polls in the favor of either candidate is so ridiculously stupid, that anyone who would even consider it is an idiot. Granted, it’s no more stupid than Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments, or Sarah Palin stating as a foreign policy credential the ability to see Russia from Alaska.

But the pattern continues, those on the right-wing spew nonsense that makes absolutely no sense to any rational person, then wonder why mainstream America sees them as out-of-touch crazy people. To any rational person, the reason is quite clear why Republicans are falling in the polls, it can summed up in two words: Mitt Romney.

The Impending GOP War, and Who Wins

By Alec Kohut

When President Barack Obama wins a second term on November 6^th, Republicans will suffer their biggest disappointment, and most smashing defeat, of our lifetime. It will be seen as the greatest failure of the party in generations, and the war for the hearts and minds of the GOP will begin.

The battle lines are already being drawn, and soon the the battles will rage within Republican circles. And before the victor is decided, we will likely have witnessed an all out war. This week a major gauntlet was throw down by two leading conservative voices directly at Presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

When former Presidential candidate Rick Santorum and Senator Jim DeMint followed another former Presidential candidate, Newt Gingrich to Missouri to endorse senate candidate Todd Akin, the first battles lines were drawn. Their endorsement of Akin was a direct repudiation of Mitt Romney and an assault to his position as leader of the Grand Old Party. It is also a signal to Jeb Bush who recently said today’s Republican party would be too far right for both his father and Ronald Reagan. If Jeb Bush tries to move the party to the middle, he’ll do it without us.

As the chasm in the Republican party grows, there is no better catalyst for the fight than Mitt Romney himself. The more moderate factions of the GOP will claim that Mitt’s hard right turn away from his moderate, more center of the road position causes him to lose independents and the election. While the Tea Party, and evangelical crowd will remind everyone why they never liked, or trusted Romney in the first place. We need a real conservative they’ll say, something Romney never was.

Already conservatives are asking for more Ryan, and less Romney. Even diehard Romney supporters felt a level of embarrassment this week watching Mitt Romney try to change the chants of “Ryan!, Ryan!, Ryan!,” to ‘Romney/Ryan, Romney/Ryan.” It was pathetic. And if sourced stories are to be believed, Ryan is already, distancing himself from the party’s nominee. Bill Kristol has already said a Ryan/Rubio ticket is what conservatives really want.

As election day draws closer, and the prospect of a Romney upset becomes more and more unlikely, the finger pointing will intensify and the quiet ramblings you hear now, will become of crescendo of discontentment towards the Republican nominee who wasted the right-wing’s only chance to defeat Barack Obama.

If the Democrats gain seats in the House and Senate as well, the blame will undoubtedly be heaped on the top of the ticket. Already Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin watching his campaign in freefall, has pointed to Mitt Romney’s woes as the reason. And when Republicans lose seats in the House, is there any doubt Eric Cantor will attempt a coup for Speaker, or, hopefully minority leader.

The more centrist and moderate Republicans will make their case. The GOP’s Tea Party led shift to the far right forced Romney to take positions unpopular with swing voters. They will argue that the GOP cannot survive by continually alienating Latino, African-American and women voters. And they will lose.

The right-wing Tea Party faction of the GOP will win. The main reason is quite simple: it’s easier to energize anger and resentment, than it is to mobilize logic and reason. The Tea Party and evangelicals learned in 2010 that relatively small, motivated group can change a political party. Demonstrating greater political savvy and street smarts than the ridiculous “occupy” movement, the Tea Party set forth nominating their own hand-picked candidates for office. And that small motivated group, succeeded. In Delaware the Tea Party nominated Christine O’Donnell for the US Senate with a vote total of less than 17% of registered Republicans in Delaware, while Nevada Republicans did the same for Sharon Angle with less than 18%.

The fact that many Republican voters stated their preference for Romney was merely because they felt he had the best chance to beat Obama will empower the Tea Party to not allow perceived electability to be a factor when choosing candidates. For years moderate Republicans that don’t conform to the narrow right-wing Tea Party evangelical views will be branded, “Romney-like.”

Romney’s loss will embolden the likes of Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Todd Akin, Bill Kristol and Ann Coulter who will rightfully claim, “we told you so.” The crushing Romney defeat will provide more than enough ammunition to move the party even further to the right and push back anyone who calls for a more inclusive Republican party, regardless of their last name.

So the immediate winners in the Republican war within the party will be the evangelicals and Tea Party. But in the long run, the winner is clear, the Democratic Party. We’ll happy run against all Sharon Angles and Todd Akins they can nominate. We welcome a party that listens to Rush Limbaugh and disdains Richard Lugar.  Since President Obama’s election the Tea Party and evangelicals have worked to move the Republican as right as possible, but after a Romney defeat and they get their wish, the old adage will ring true.

Be careful what you wish for.

Mitt Romney - Tax Cheat ! YES! - Politics & A Beer #20

Is Mitt Romney a Tax Cheat - I say Yes !!

I know the mainstream media is treading lightly on this subject, but I have no trouble in saying Mitt Romney's refusal to release his previous years' Tax Returns is because he took part in an "Amnesty" program offered to wealthy Americans who were using Swiss Bank Accounts to illegally evade US taxes.

Politics & A Beer #19 _ Romney Lost Election This Week

Mitt Romney Lost the Election This Week

Romney's campaign is sinking, and it's all from self-inflicted wounds

He's done

Will The Money Dry Up For Mitt?

Every political campaign is really two campaigns in one. There’s the outside, or public, campaign we all see. The commercials, the issues, the speeches, the yard signs, basically all the voter outreach. Then there’s the inside game, and at this point in the cycle, 100% of the inside game is money. The inside game is played by well-healed individuals who are known to invest thousands, tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands to political campaigns. And yes, since the Citizens United decision, even millions.

The inside game is not a shady world of smoke-filled rooms with candidates promising favors once elected, it’s tough competition for the limited dollars that will be invested in a political season. The two types of players are simple, those that already agree ideologically and must decide if and how much they will invest, and in high level races, those who will bet both sides to maintain access.

And a campaign knows these high dollar investors already know where you stand on the issues, at this point, they only care where you stand in the polls. In other words, can you win? Is your campaign a good investment. After all, you might as well throw money at penny stocks and hope to get lucky, before investing in losing candidate. Plus, big money always knows, when a candidate scores a surprise win, you can always come in after the election to help pay off the debt.

So with that in mind, imagine what Mitt Romney’s fundraising calls must sound like this week. And yes, all candidates, even Presidential make fundraising calls. Imagine Mitt trying to explain how their campaign will make a comeback, and soon he’ll be in the lead. Do you think that person on the other end of the line believes it as he may have before the GOP convention, before Clint Eastwood, before the Democratic convention, before Libya, before “middle income” is $200,000, and before 47% of Americans are moochers.

How do you like Mitt’s chances of getting money on that call, especially for the amount he wanted?

How soon will be that conservative donors, who really never liked Mitt anyway, start to move their resources to protecting their House majority, and gain control of the Senate? After the Democratic convention and the numerous slip-ups by Romney and the GOP overall, many races thought be safe, or least likely Republican, are now toss-ups or leaning blue.

What’s better investment for conservatives, or those hedging bets? Throwing money into a black hole with Mitt Romney, or investing in Senate candidates, Rick Berg (North Dakota), Scott Brown (Massachusetts), Tommy Thompson (Wisconsin), Dean Heller (Nevada), etc. Not to mention the 435 House races out there.

The new SuperPACs now also face that decision. Say what you will about the Koch brothers and Karl Rove, but when it comes to politics they are nobody’s fool. Does anyone believe they will risk losing the House and allowing the Democrats to gain bigger majority if Romney continues this free fall? That would as naïve as believing the Republicans aren’t going to support Todd Akin if he has any chance in late October.

I’ve worked fundraising on both winning and losing campaigns. As the summer ends and the winds turn cold, if your behind, and falling, you fundraising will freeze before the first morning frost of the year. If your winning, and rising the in polls, you never even realize that summer has passed.

Alec Kohut worked on political campaigns and in fundraising from 1992-1996. He also currently writes at Maxboxing.com.

Romney Takes ‘Out of Touch’ To Disqualifying Level

Most elections come down to pretty simple things. It’s not foreign policy details or budget specifics, but more likely “it’s the economy stupid” or “are you better off now than four years ago,” and let’s not forget my favorite, “who would you rather have a beer with.” And there are two things a candidate cannot be, or appear to be. One is stupid, (i.e. Dan Quayle and Sarah Palin). The second is “out of touch” with voters.

Mitt Romney has taken being out of touch to new heights as a candidate. The latest demonstration of his complete lack of understanding of America aired on Sunday, in an interview conducted, and released, last week. When Romney was asked by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, if he thought $100,000 a year was “middle income,” Romney quickly answered, “No.” Then showed that he knows absolutely nothing about America by saying, “middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less.”

That statement is not a “gaffe,” not a “misstatement,” nor did he get caught by a “gotcha” question. This goes far beyond his liking NASCAR and football because he knows some team owners This was a clear, concise, belief held by Romney, that completely and totally disqualifies him to be President of the United States.

Romney continued his statement by saying, “so number one, don’t raise taxes on middle income people, lower them.” This is directly related to his ability to govern based on reality and an understanding of basic facts. Romney is making policy decisions based on a set of facts that is inaccurate to such a magnitude that renders it impossible to make sound decisions.

The fact is that median household income in the United States stands at $51,413 according to a study of Labor Department data. That means 50% of American households make less than $51,413, while 50% make more.

It is absolutely impossible for Mitt Romney to make sound policy decision regarding families paying or saving for college, saving for retirement, a fair tax system, entitlement reform, health care policy, or any issue when he believes families actually making around $52,000, in his warped mind are making $200,000. Impossible.

It could be argued that Mitt Romney is out of touch with just about every voter America except those using “tax avoidance” schemes with Swiss Bank Accounts and offshore shell companies in the Cayman Islands and Bermuda.

Is Romney even in touch with conservatives? Is it possible that pro-life conservatives either relate to or trust a candidate who was adamantly pro-choice as Governor of Massachusetts and only discovered he was actually pro-life when seeking the GOP nomination for President in 2007.

Do those conservatives rallying against “Obamacare” with cries of a socialist takeover of health care feel any kinship with the man who passed the exact same universal health care bill as Governor?

And while completely out of touch with voters, Mitt and Ann Romney make matters worse when they play “dress up” and try to act like regular average people. It only amplifies how out of touch he is when Ann tries to convince voters that she buys shirts for Mitt at Costco and he irons them himself.

Mitt Romney ironing his own shirt would look as out of place, and stupid, as Michael Dukakis in a tank.

Mitt Romney's Radical Right-Wing Problem...

…And Why It Will Cost Him The Election

Mitt Romney’s complete ineptitude Wednesday in response to the killing of US ambassador Chris Stevens and members of his staff was as much a display of his lack Presidential credentials, as it was another example of his constant need to appease the radical right-wing of the Republican party. Since securing his party’s nomination, Romney has been involved in tug-o-war between the right-wing and the need to garner independent, moderate votes, and it’s a no-win situation for Romney.

Romney’s attempt to attack the President is just another example in a growing list of overtures to the radical, ignorant segment of the Republican party, that has grown in to a near majority of the once proud party. Romney did more than show himself a foreign policy amateur, he appealed directly to those who believe that somehow President Obama is a closet Muslim intent on destroying America.

Indeed a very sad for American politics.

Mitt Romney now finds himself in an inescapable zero-sum game when it comes to earning votes. Although he states personally he believes that President Obama was born in America, his embrace of the “birther” movement alienates middle-of-the –road voters, while any attempt to reach out to the moderates is quickly met with scorn by the vile spokespeople of the new Republican party, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and their ilk.

Just this week when Romney seemed to voice support for the very popular pre-existing condition of Obamacare, he was quickly excoriated, and his campaign scrambled to explain to the right-wing media what Mitt really meant to say. He cannot even mention his greatest accomplishment as Governor, his health care law that served as the basis for Obamacare.

One thing is crystal clear in this tug-o-war, the radical right is winning, and winning big. Every time Romney has made even the slightest attempt to appeal to a broader base of voters, he has been forced backtracked to appease the radical right.

After initially stating he would not comment on specific state ballot measures in Ohio, it took Romney one day to change his position and support the hugely unpopular SB5 bill that went down by a landslide at the polls.

Despite public proclamations that he supports rape, incest and life of the women exemptions as part of his abortion stance, he quickly capitulated to Mike Huckabee on Fox News that he would indeed support a “personhood” amendment to the Constitution that would bar such exemptions.

When Rush Limbaugh called Sandra Fluke a “slut,” Romney refused to distance himself from the repugnant talk-show host and merely said he would have used different language.

The fear of alienating the radical base that has overtaken the republican party, has made it virtually impossible for Romney to make any attempt to reach voters in the middle. This is what will cost Mitt Romney any reasonable hope of winning in November, and could very likely pave the way for another Obama landslide.

Mitt Romney's $9 an Hour Job Problem

When it comes to replacing good paying jobs with $9 an hour jobs...Mitt Romney did build that.

In his acceptance speech in Tampa Mitt Romney uttered a line that hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but accurately describes one of the real problems in the US economy today. Early in his speech Romney said:

“Or when you lost that job that paid $22.50 an hour with benefits, you took two jobs at nine bucks an hour and fewer benefits.”

Well, to borrow from a theme of the Republican convention, Mr. Romney, You Did Build That.

By Romney’s own admission, his efforts at Bain Capital led to 100,000 net new jobs for the US economy. While that fact has been hard to verify, let’s take Mitt’s word for it, and dig a little deeper. According to the GOP nominee, job creation by Bain was led by Staples (89,000 jobs), Sports Authority (15,000 jobs), Bright Horizons Family Solutions (15,000 jobs) and Domino’s Pizza (7,900 jobs). This according to fact checkers at the Washington Post.

Using Romney’s own math, these four employers account for 126,900 new jobs. So aside from these four companies, Bain Capital’s record is a net job loss of 26,900 jobs.

Now let’s look at the median pay for employees of these companies, according to Payscale.com. Employees that have worked at those companies for less than five years: Staples, $9.06 an hour,  Bright Horizons, $12.11 an hour, Sports Authority, $10.70 an hour, and Domino’s, $7.83 an hour plus tips.

So when Romney talks about people having to take lower paying jobs in this economy, he knows what he’s talking about, because he’s created those lower paying jobs. It’s also no secret that Bain Capital’s vulture capital slash and burn style of capitalism was notorious for firing workers who were making livable wages, such as $22.50 an hour with benefits, while Romney pocketed millions.

Perhaps the best example of Romney and Bain Capital leading the charge for lower wages and benefits in America is American Pad and Paper, or AMPAD. Upon purchasing a plant in Marion, Indiana, Romney and Bain fired all the union high wage employees, and offered their jobs back at decreased wages and benefits. It’s fair to say that Romney was a pioneer in the practice of replacing good-paying jobs with benefits with low wage jobs with less benefits. The company ended up bankrupt, of course, while Mitt made millions.

But perhaps the most striking thing to me about Romney’s “$9 an hour a job without benefits” line in his speech, was how accurately it described the plight of Joe Soptic. You Soptic is the man featured in the Priorities USA PAC campaign ad speaking of the difficulties his family had after being laid off by Bain Capital at GST Steel, losing his health insurance and his wife dying of cancer. Soptic went from a good paying job with benefits to getting work wherever he could as a custodian, without benefits. That’s Mitt Romney’s America.

Republicans attacked the ad with vigor, demanding President Obama repudiate the ad’s assertion that somehow losing health insurance could be damaging to one’s health. But as President Clinton would say, it takes some brass to attack your opponent for what you did to the economy.

Even Mitt Romney now seems to understand that the Bain Capital business model of destroying high paying jobs and replacing them with $9 an hour jobs at Staples is not good for the US economy. But when money was on the table, Mitt choose against what was good for America, Mitt choose making millions for himself by bankrupting companies that paid living wages, and creating $9 an hour jobs.

So now, after making hundreds of millions of dollars by replacing high paying jobs with $9 an hour jobs, Mitt sees the light and realizes that high paying jobs are what make the economy strong.

Forget your speech Mitt, but an apology would be nice.